Macro Memo | December 2025

At Oister Global, we’ve been publishing a monthly Macro Memo all year. It’s been a long-form format by design, intentionally detailed, data-heavy, and built for context.

For the year-end recap, we wanted to make the very eventful 2025 easier to consume. So we’ve distilled the year into a month-by-month timeline.

2025 had enough turbulence to justify caution. What stood out instead was how consistently India absorbed it and kept moving, often improving while the world was busy lowering expectations.

If you’re building, investing, or allocating capital in India, this is a clear view of how the macro actually moved through 2025, month by month. We close with five themes that tie the whole year together.

January 2025

• GST hit a post-Apr’24 high: January GST collections came in at ₹1.95 lakh Cr (+12.3% YoY), the highest since April 2024.
• Factories ran hot: Manufacturing PMI printed 57.7 (six-month high), driven by demand and output.
• Exports kept compounding: Commerce Ministry data showed cumulative exports (merchandise & services) during April-January 2024-25 at $682B (+7.2% YoY).

February 2025

• Union budget leaned harder into capex: FY26 capex budgeted at ₹11.21 lakh Cr (3.1% of GDP); FY26 fiscal deficit estimated at 4.4% of GDP.
• RBI begins easing: MPC cuts repo to 6.25% (after keeping it unchanged at 6.5% for 11 consecutive meetings).
• Direct tax buoyancy: Net direct tax collections ₹17.78 lakh Cr (+15%) (till Feb 10, FY25).
• Trade gap compressed: trade deficit narrowed to $14B, lowest in over 3 years.

March 2025

• GST ended FY on a high: March GST collections ₹1.96 lakh Cr (+9.9% YoY), among the strongest prints of the year.
• UPI hit a new record month: ₹24.77 lakh Cr in March, up 25% YoY in value and 36% YoY in volume.
• Inflation fell to a multi-year low: March CPI inflation 3.34% YoY, the lowest after August 2019.

April 2025

• Second rate cut: RBI cuts repo again, to 6.0%, and projects 6.5% GDP growth for FY26.
• CPI printed lowest since 2019: April CPI reported at 3.16%, lowest since July 2019.
• Reserves grew: India’s forex reserves rose to ~$686B for the week ended Apr 18, 2025.
• Household risk appetite stayed strong: Mutual fund SIP inflows hit an all-time high of ₹26,632 Cr in April 2025 (about +3% MoM), driven by higher participation with ~8.38 Cr contributing accounts.

May 2025

• India set to overtake Japan in size: IMF projected India’s 2025 nominal GDP at ~$4.187T, just above Japan, implying 4th largest globally.
• Ceasefire sparked a risk-on surge: Markets logged their strongest session in nearly a year, with Sensex jumping +3.7% and Nifty adding +3.8% as India–Pakistan ceasefire news eased risk sentiment.
• UK–India FTA concluded: UK estimated it could add ~$34B to annual bilateral trade from 2040, and remove tariffs on ~99% of Indian exports.
• Inflation broke below 3%: CPI inflation fell to 2.82% YoY in May, lowest since Feb 2019.

June 2025

• Big moves by RBI: RBI cut the repo by 50 bps to 5.50%. Separately, it announced a 100 bps CRR cut (phased Sept–Nov) aimed at releasing ~₹2.5 lakh Cr of liquidity.
• Strong GDP growth: Q1 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2025) real GDP growth was 7.8% YoY (best in five quarters), up from 6.5% in Q1 FY25.
• India entered top-100 SDG rank: rank 99 in ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ index.

July 2025

• Remittances hit a record: $135B in FY25 (+14%), offsetting ~47% of the merchandise trade deficit.
• IPO pipeline broadens: ~8 issues lined up for late June/July, with a combined issue size of ₹26,000+ Cr.
• Inflation dropped to an 8-year low: July CPI 1.55% YoY (lowest since June 2017).
• SIPs hit a new peak again: July SIP inflows hit a record ₹28,464 Cr. Total SIP accounts rose to 9.45 Cr.

August 2025

• S&P upgraded India: BBB (from BBB-) with a stable outlook, its first upgrade in 18 years.
• Manufacturing ambition (semi-conductors): Government’s semiconductor push crossed 10 approved projects with ~₹1.60 lakh Cr cumulative investment (across states); first “Made in India” chips nearing launch by end-2025.
• Electronics and defence showed hard numbers: Electronics exports rose 47% YoY in Q1 FY26 to ~$12.4B, and are up ~8x over the decade. Defence added heft: FY25 defence production hit ₹1.50 lakh Cr and defence exports ₹23,622 Cr.

September 2025

• GST 2.0 as household stimulus: GST 2.0 implies ₹1 lakh Cr+ net household tax savings, with ₹2.5 lakh crore+ total impact after multipliers; CEA Nageswaran now believes FY26 growth is trending toward the upper end of 6.3%–6.8%.
• Record month for IPOs: 25 mainboard IPOs raised over ₹13,300 Cr in September (highest monthly count since Jan 1997); 53 SME IPOs raised ₹2,309 crore (record monthly by value and volume).
• Growth beats expectations: Q2 FY26 (Jul–Sep) real GDP grew 8.2% YoY (fastest in six quarters).

October 2025

• Growth outlook upgrades: IMF raised India’s FY26 growth outlook to 6.6% (from 6.4%). Deloitte pegged FY26 growth at 6.7%–6.9%.
• Festive demand, in numbers: CAIT estimated Diwali 2025 retail sales at ₹6.05T (₹5.40T goods + ₹65,000 Cr services); Indian goods sales rose ~25% YoY.
• Forex reserves rose: $4.5B to $702B.

November 2025

• IMF put numbers on the scale: IMF’s updated projections put India crossing $4T in FY26 and reaching ~$4.96T by FY28.
• Consumption remained positive post-festive season: UPI value rose from ₹8,400B (FY25) to ₹11,500B so far in FY26, and credit card spend increased from ₹527B to ₹579B.
• SIPs stayed near peak: SIP inflows ₹29,445 Cr in November.
• Trade gap normalised: India’s trade deficit narrowed to a five-month low of $24.53B in November, down from $41.68B in October.

December 2025

• RBI turned optimistic: RBI raised its FY26 GDP growth forecast to 7.3% (from 6.8%) and cut its inflation projection to 2.0% (from 2.6%).
• Rate-cuts this year: 2025 easing reached 125 bps, including the December cut, backed by benign inflation.
• Liquidity injection: RBI will inject ~$32B into the banking system via ₹2T open market bond purchases and a $10B USD/INR swap.

The 2025 India Macro Story in Five Themes

1. Disinflation gave monetary policy room
   Rate cuts stack up through the year, while inflation prints stay tame enough to let RBI keep supporting demand.
2. Domestic capital became the stabiliser
   SIPs at record levels, UPI dominance, deepening household formalisation: India’s own balance sheet increasingly funds India’s growth.
3. “Make in India” showed up in measurable output
   Electronics exports growth, defence production/exports, and progress in the semiconductors industry made the manufacturing story obvious.
4. Resilience was a mix of buffers and people
   High FX reserves into Oct, plus record remittances and strong exports, softened the macro impact of trade volatility and currency pressure.
5. Geopolitics stayed noisy, but the macro narrative didn’t break
   Multiple agencies, including the IMF, kept upgrading India’s growth outlook, reinforcing its position as the fastest-growing major economy.

Research Analyst

Simran Mehla

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why was 2025 considered “eventful” for India?

A: Because it combined global volatility and geopolitical noise with meaningful domestic shifts: disinflation, rate cuts, record household financial participation, strong GDP prints, and visible manufacturing output.

Q: What did the RBI do with interest rates in 2025?

A: The RBI shifted into an easing cycle, with cuts stacking across the year as inflation cooled, and liquidity measures added support alongside rate actions.

Q: What are SIP inflows, and why do they matter?|

A: SIPs are systematic investment plans into mutual funds. Record SIP inflows signal rising household risk appetite and steady domestic liquidity, which can stabilise markets during external shocks.

Q: What did the S&P upgrade indicate?

A: It signaled improved external perception of India’s credit profile and macro stability, which can reduce risk premia over time and support longer-duration capital.

Sources

Economic Times | Reuters | Mint | Press Information Bureau | Business Standard | Fortune India | The Hindu | Times of India | Moneycontrol | AMFI