Udita Sharma
Udita Sharma
Investment Engagement Manager
Helped 500+ investors build
their investment thesis.

Macro Memo | November 2025

December 23, 2025

This month’s memo tracks how India’s growth outlook has shifted with fresh projections from policymakers, multilaterals and rating agencies, and what high-frequency signals from consumption, markets and flows are showing post-festive season. It also flags key November developments in labour reforms, investment activity, and infrastructure and cross-border linkages.

1. Growth outlook and forecasts

  • CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran now expects FY26 real GDP growth above 6.8%, versus his earlier 6.3–6.8% range, and expects GDP to cross $4 trillion in FY26.
  • Moody’s projects India’s growth at 7.0% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026.
  • S&P Global projects GDP growth of 6.5% in FY26 and 6.7% in FY27.
  • Fitch unit raised its GDP growth projection for the current fiscal year to 6.5%.
  • The IMF now expects India to cross the $4 trillion mark in FY26 and reach about $4.96 trillion in FY28, implying the $5 trillion level in FY29.
    “Comfortable looking at a number north of 6.8% now. My original range was 6.3-6.8% (projected in Economic Survey). Back in August, we were all concerned about whether we would even go towards the lower end of the 6-7 range. Now I think there is a lot of comfort in saying that it would be definitely north of 6.5% and I am more comfortable saying even north of 6.8%….”
    — CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran
    “Despite external headwinds, growth is expected to remain robust, supported by favourable domestic conditions.”
    — IMF

2. Demand, markets and household money

  • RBI’s bulletin reports that October high-frequency indicators captured the impact of festive demand, urban consumption, rural demand, and GST rate reductions.
  • A post-festive survey-based Economic Times report states that demand remains strong and the consumption outlook positive.
  • UPI transactions in October reached a record ₹94,000 crore in average daily value.
  • On 26 November, Nifty and Sensex traded near record highs, adding over ₹4 lakh crore to the total market capitalisation of listed companies in a single session.
  • On 27 November, Nifty approached its all-time high, trading at ₹26,219, while Sensex was at ₹85,690, supported by positive global sentiment.
  • Mutual fund industry assets under management reached ₹79.86 lakh crore in October; gold and silver mutual fund AUM crossed ₹1 lakh crore.
  • Monthly SIP inflows stood at about ₹29,600 crore.
    “One of the key reasons for sustainability is the strength of systematic investment plans (SIPs), which currently account for around ₹29,600 crore per month. SIPs represent disciplined, long-term money from retail investors, providing a strong foundation for the industry.”
    — Venkat Chalasani, CEO, AMFI

3. Exports and Foreign Reserves

  • Exports were in the “positive zone” in November (till 21st) after a 12% year-on-year decline in October.
  • Forex reserves increased by $5.54 billion in the week ended 14 November to $692.57 billion; gold reserves rose by $5.33 billion in the same week.

4. Labour reforms

  • The Ministry of Labour and Employment announced implementation of four labour codes covering wages, social security, industrial relations, and occupational safety and working conditions, consolidating the 29 existing labour laws.
  • SBI Research estimates that the new labour codes could increase consumption by about ₹75,000 crore, raise the formal workforce share by 15%, extend social security coverage to around 85% within three years, and reduce the unemployment rate by 1.3%.
  • The IMF Executive Board statement “welcomed India’s new labour market reforms” in the context of structural reforms.

5. Investment, corporate activity and manufacturing

  • M&A deal value in the first nine months of 2025 rose 37% year-on-year to about $26 billion across 649 deals.
  • At the 21st CII Manufacturing Summit, industry speakers said India should aim to become a global manufacturing hub.
    “Countries like China and others in the region have become manufacturers to the world. This is something that we have to aspire to; we have to aspire to be a manufacturer to the world.”
    — Jamshyd Godrej, Managing Director, Godrej & Boyce

6. Infrastructure, financial system, and cross-border links

  • Crisil estimates that data centre operators in India are likely to invest ₹55,000–60,000 crore by FY28, with annual data centre sector revenues projected at about ₹20,000 crore.
  • NHAI has invited bids for 52 highway projects so far in FY26, covering around 2,188 km and an estimated ₹1.15 lakh crore in capital expenditure.
  • HUDCO is in discussions with global development institutions to raise up to $1 billion by March 2026 to fund infrastructure projects.
  • RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that, given the pace of growth of Indian lenders, “it is only a matter of time” before “quite a few” Indian banks enter the top-100 global banks list; currently SBI and HDFC Bank are in that list.
  • Indian companies’ presence in Abu Dhabi has grown at a 38.4% CAGR between 2019 and 2024.
    “India has always been an important part of our growth. That role tells a powerful story of confidence in Abu Dhabi’s vision. Indian companies are increasing their presence in Abu Dhabi with an annual compounded growth rate (CAGR) of 38.4 per cent between 2019 and 2024. And they are more enabled than ever before to access key markets across Middle East Africa and beyond,” he said.
    — Ahmed Jasim Al Zaabi, Chairman, Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development
Q: What is India’s GDP growth outlook for FY26?
A: Most recent projections put India’s real GDP growth for FY26 around 6.5–7%, with the Chief Economic Adviser indicating comfort above 6.8%.
Q: When is India expected to become a $5 trillion economy?
A: The IMF’s latest numbers imply India crossing $4 trillion in FY26 and approaching $5 trillion by FY29.
Q: How are Indian markets and household savings behaving?
A: Equity indices are trading near record highs, supported by strong domestic flows. Mutual fund AUM has touched new peaks, SIP inflows are near ₹30,000 crore a month, and gold/silver funds have crossed ₹1 lakh crore in AUM as investors diversify.
Q: Why are the new labour codes significant for growth?
A: The four labour codes consolidate 29 laws into a simpler framework for wages, social security, industrial relations and safety. Early estimates suggest they could lift consumption, accelerate formalisation and widen social security coverage over the next three years.
Q: How are India’s global linkages evolving, especially with the Gulf?
A: Indian companies’ presence in Abu Dhabi has grown at a 38% CAGR since 2019, reflecting deeper trade and investment linkages. This complements India’s broader push to integrate into supply chains across the Middle East, Africa and beyond.
  1. https://www.livemint.com/economy/cea-v-anantha-nageswaran-confident-indian-economy-will-cross-4-trillion-mark-in-fy26-heres-why-11764060334954.html
  2. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/moodys-pegs-indias-growth-at-7-in-2025-6-4-at-2026/articleshow/125469503.cms
  3. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/consumption-to-drive-indias-growth-to-6-5-in-fy26-6-7-in-fy27-sp/articleshow/125549251.cms
  4. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/fitch-unit-raises-gdp-projection-to-6-5-for-this-fiscal/articleshow/125597635.cms
  5. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/imf-says-indias-economy-will-stay-robust-despite-external-headwinds-as-inflation-remains-well-contained/articleshow/125592138.cms
  6. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/india-to-reach-5-trillion-economy-a-year-later-than-earlier-expected-imf-data-show-13698239.html
  7. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-growth-momentum-strengthens-on-festive-demand-resilient-consumption-rbi-bulletin/articleshow/125543382.cms
  8. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/post-festive-demand-remains-strong-in-country-as-consumption-outlook-stays-positive-report/articleshow/125603781.cms
  9. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/upi-hits-record-rs-94000-crore-in-aily-transactions-this-oct/articleshow/124738351.cms
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  12. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/gold-silver-mutual-funds-aum-crosses-rs-1-lakh-crore-amfi-ceo-venkat-chalasani-says-investors-seeking-diversification-13692773.html
  13. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/exports-in-positive-zone-sez-surplus-can-help-cut-imports-says-piyush-goyal/articleshow/125568726.cms
  14. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/forex-reserves-rise-by-usd-5-54-billion-to-usd-692-57-billion/articleshow/125485958.cms
  15. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/india-implements-four-labour-codes-replacing-29-laws-in-biggest-reform-since-independence/articleshow/125482920.cms
  16. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/labour-reform-new-codes-to-lift-consumption-by-rs-75000-crore-sbi-sees-sharper-formalisation-ahead/articleshow/125570043.cms
  17. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/imf-board-welcomes-india-s-labour-reforms-says-faster-structural-changes-key-to-viksit-bharat-goal-13698087.html
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  19. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/india-must-aim-to-become-worlds-manufacturing-hub-industry-leaders-say-at-the-21st-cii-manufacturing-summit/articleshow/125586574.cms
  20. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/data-centre-operators-likely-to-invest-up-to-rs-60000-crore-by-fy28-crisil/articleshow/125569380.cms
  21. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/nhai-invites-bid-for-52-highway-projects-so-far-in-2025-26/articleshow/125407950.cms
  22. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/hudco-in-talks-with-global-development-institutions-to-raise-usd-1-bn-by-march-cmd/articleshow/125361995.cms
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  24. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/indian-businesses-gain-greater-market-access-through-abu-dhabi-abu-dhabi-global-market-chairman/articleshow/125456802.cms
Udita Sharma
Udita Sharma
Investment Engagement Manager
Helped 500+ investors build
their investment thesis.

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