Can 2025 Reach Record $200 Billion in Global Secondaries Deal Volume?

The secondaries market has been on a record-breaking streak. Each year brings fresh fundraising highs, deal volumes that surpass expectations, and a steady stream of mega-funds that redefine what’s possible. After raising a record $123.9 billion in 2023 and transacting $162 billion in 2024, the market now faces its biggest milestone yet: can 2025 break the $200 billion barrier in deal volume?

A Market in Overdrive

The momentum in secondaries is clear. On the fundraising side, $123.9 billion was raised in 2023, setting a record. By the first half of 2025, fundraising had already reached $80.8 billion, 90% higher than the record set in H1 2023 and nearly matching the full-year total for 2024, marking the strongest first half on record.

On the deal volume side, 2024 saw $162 billion in transactions, the largest ever recorded. The pace quickened further in early 2025, with H1 deal volume reaching $103 billion, a 51% increase from H1 2024 and already more than halfway to the $200 billion milestone.

With another half year still to go, forecasts from Jefferies suggest the market could not only hit but exceed $200 billion in deal volume in 2025.

The Drivers Behind the Surge

Several structural and cyclical factors are pushing fundraising and deal activity higher. Liquidity needs in a frozen exit market are central. IPOs and M&A have slowed for four to five years, creating pent-up demand for liquidity, and LPs are increasingly relying on secondaries to recycle capital.

Mega-fund closures are amplifying the trend. Ardian’s flagship closed at $30 billion in January 2025, the largest secondaries fund ever, while HarbourVest’s flagship raised $15.1 billion in August 2024, exceeding targets. The size of these funds allows managers to absorb multi-billion-dollar portfolios in a single transaction, further boosting volume.

New entrants and broader strategies are also contributing. Firms have launched specialized vehicles, such as software-focused continuation funds, while retail access products and semi-liquid structures are opening the strategy to new investor bases.

Finally, secondaries’ attractive risk-return profile is drawing capital. Investors value their ability to deliver private equity-level returns with a more credit-like risk profile, particularly in volatile markets where traditional exits are scarce.

A Record-Breaking First Half

The first six months of 2025 were historic. Fundraising reached $80.8 billion, 90% higher than the previous H1 record of $42.5 billion set in 2023. Parallely, deal activity in H1 alone exceeded $100 billion, meaning the market is already more than halfway toward the $200 billion milestone.

This surge reflects the mainstreaming of secondaries as a first resort liquidity tool. As PJT Park Hill managing director noted, “The secondaries market is on the grand stage this year.”

A Mid-Year Shock: Did Tariffs Derail the Market?

April 2025 brought a potential derailment. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs rattled markets, raising fears that secondaries dealflow would pause. For a moment, estimates of $200 billion looked out of reach, with some questioning whether even $160 billion could be achieved.

But the pause lasted only weeks. By June, dealmaking resumed at full speed, reaffirming secondaries’ resilience. In fact, the turbulence may have spurred more sellers to the market, seeking certainty of liquidity amidst volatility. This episode highlighted one of secondaries’ defining strengths: its ability to adapt quickly and provide liquidity even when traditional exits falter.

The Dry Powder Question

While deal activity is breaking records, capital availability is being tested. Dry powder declined from $216 billion in late 2024 to $171 billion by H1 2025. Evercore, however, expects this to rebound as fundraising catches up, with investment banks projecting $250–300 billion in dry powder within 12 months.

Until then, buyers face a capital-constrained environment where only the largest and best-positioned firms can keep up. The shortage of capital may slow deployment at the margins, but it also underscores the strength of demand for secondaries solutions that consistently outpaces the capital raised to fund them.

Scenarios: Will 2025 Hit $200 Billion?

The market’s trajectory suggests multiple outcomes:

• Bullish Case – Strong H2 dealflow, continued mega-fund closes, and robust LP selling push deal volume above $200 billion, setting a new all-time record.
• Base Case – Dealflow remains strong but moderates slightly; 2025 closes in the $190–200 billion range.
• Bearish Case – Renewed geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks (tariffs, rate volatility) extend pauses, pulling totals below $180 billion.

A Market at a Milestone

The secondaries market is no longer asking if it can keep breaking records — it’s asking how high it can go. With $80.8 billion raised in just six months, deal activity already past $100 billion, and mega-funds rewriting the scale of the industry, 2025 is on track to be the year the market surpasses $200 billion in deal volume.

Even if it falls just short, the trajectory is unmistakable. Secondaries have evolved from a niche trading strategy into a central pillar of private equity. And as liquidity remains scarce across traditional exit routes, the role of secondaries will only grow more critical.

Whether it’s $190 billion, $200 billion, or more, 2025 cements secondaries’ place as the liquidity backbone of private markets, a position that is earned through scale, adaptability, and resilience.

Brand Manager

Aayushi Thakur

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How much secondaries fundraising has been recorded recently?

A: Fundraising reached $123.9 billion in 2023, a record year. By the first half of 2025, fundraising had already hit $80.8 billion, nearly matching 2024’s full-year total and marking the strongest first half on record.

Q: How much secondaries deal volume was recorded in 2024 and H1 2025?

A: Deal volume hit $162 billion in 2024, the highest ever. In H1 2025, transactions reached $103 billion, a 51% increase from H1 2024 and already more than halfway to the $200 billion milestone.

Q: What is driving the surge in secondaries activity?

A: Slower IPOs and M&A, mega-fund closures, new entrants, retail access, and the strategy’s attractive risk-return profile are all fueling record dealflow and fundraising.

Q: Is there enough dry powder to support $200 billion in volume?

A: Dry powder dipped to $171 billion by H1 2025 but is expected to rebound to $250–300 billion within 12 months. Demand for secondaries solutions, however, continues to outpace the capital available.

Q: What does crossing the $200 billion threshold mean for secondaries?

A: It confirms secondaries’ evolution from niche to mainstream and cements the strategy’s role as the liquidity backbone of private markets.

Sources

1. The Secondaries Investor 50: 2025.
   https://www.secondariesinvestor.com/top-secondaries-firms/
2. Jefferies H1 2025 Global Secondary Market Review
   https://www.jefferies.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2025/08/Jefferies-Global-Secondary-Market-Review-July-2025.pdf?utm_term=6601147548