The Macro Memo – April

April 2025 may go down as one of those months that make it into the history books – not for a single flashpoint, but for the way a thousand signals began aligning at once. The build-up had been mounting: whispers of a policy shift, rising global noise, and a country standing at the edge of its own ambition.

But this April, the anticipation gave way to action. India’s central bank changed its tone and then its stance. Regulators struck a note of calm in global chaos. Foreign capital turned, decisively, toward Indian shores. In a world gripped by volatility, April marked the moment India began moving in harmony with its future.

As the Reserve Bank of India marked its 90th anniversary, Governor Sanjay Malhotra signaled a major shift in tone. In an op-ed outlining a more growth-forward, inclusive, and globally attuned RBI, Malhotra made it clear that India’s central bank is aligning itself with the Viksit Bharat 2047 mission.

Just days later, the RBI followed through with action: a second consecutive rate cut, bringing the repo rate down to 6%. Made against the backdrop of global uncertainty sparked by Trump’s renewed tariffs, this move reflects a clear strategic pivot.

The message is that credit access and financial market stability will be actively supported, even if global headwinds persist. This pro-growth stance could be pivotal, fueling capital flows across housing, MSMEs, and renewables.

India’s Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran adds another key layer: It’s not just about capital inflow, it’s about what India does with it.

He highlighted a strong rebound in FDI, with gross inflows in the first eight months of FY25 rising 17.9% year-on-year to reach $55.6 billion.

But Nageswaran cautioned that future growth depends on regulatory clarity and ease of doing business. “The real unlock,” he said, “lies in making the plumbing match the vision.”

Meanwhile, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan offers a global perspective.

With US-China trade tensions back in focus and Trump’s aggressive tariff stance dominating
headlines, Rajan sees an opportunity.

India, he suggests, could emerge as a strategic beneficiary, but only if we seize the moment.

His advice includes:

Cutting our own tariffs. Moving away from protectionism. Re-engaging with Asia, including Japan, RCEP, and even China.

He also stresses the need for domestic reforms, especially in taxation and compliance, to make India truly investible.

For us, it’s a blueprint for how macro volatility can be turned into capital flows, particularly if India is seen as the stable and scalable alternative in Asia.

Amid all this, the new SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey reinforced confidence in India’s markets.

He dismissed global market jitters as externally driven and reiterated that India’s financial system remains fundamentally strong, with retail participation and institutional depth serving as key anchors.

That kind of regulatory calm matters. As volatility rises globally, India’s relative stability becomes a key differentiator.

Why this matters for us as a nation:

Globally, uncertainty is rising. But India is showing alignment across institutions, from the central bank and government to regulators, all working toward a shared growth agenda.
In contrast to volatile global conditions, India offers a compelling mix:
Favourable monetary policy
Economic resilience
Regulatory strength

India is emerging as a confident, coordinated, and credible growth story, just when the world needs one.

Sources & Further Reading:

• RBI Chief’s Growth Vision – Bloomberg
• RBI Repo Rate Cut Announcement – Reuters
• India’s Regulatory Strategy – Economic Times
• Raghuram Rajan on Trade Strategy – LiveMint
• SEBI Chairman’s Comments – Business Standard

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