Fifteen Years of Quiet Compounding

In hindsight, every investment thesis looks obvious. But that’s the illusion of time. In reality, private markets have evolved not in a straight line but in surges, stumbles, and quiet inflection points no economist quite saw coming.

What we believed in 2010, how it shifted by 2015, exploded by 2020, and where we stand in 2025, each moment tells its own story. Of capital formation, of misplaced certainty, and of how macro predictions almost always miss the human layer of markets: optimism, resilience, and reallocation.
Let’s take a look.

2010: An Alternative No One Took Seriously

In 2010, private markets were the footnote of asset allocation.

Globally, private equity and venture capital were already established but in India, they were niche, risky, and largely institutional. For most HNIs and wealth managers, alternatives meant gold, some real estate, maybe art. Private funds were either misunderstood or mistrusted.

Economists post-2008 were focused on too big to fail, not too illiquid to track. Sovereign debt, stimulus packages, and shadow banking were the buzzwords. Hardly anyone was discussing secondaries or India-focused VC. In fact, McKinsey’s 2010 Global Private Markets Review didn’t even have India on the radar.

And yet quietly, some of the best-performing global PE vintages were born in the post-GFC haze. The firms that deployed capital in 2010–2012 vintages, when public markets were still nursing their wounds, harvested returns that would beat the S&P for a decade.
It was the early innings. But only a few believed.

2015: The First Time Everyone Said “This Is The Moment”

By 2015, private markets had graduated from footnote to foot-in-the-door.
Flipkart’s rise had turned VC into a cocktail party conversation. PE firms were raising India-focused funds with far more confidence. Family offices started becoming a serious part of the LP base. The conversation shifted from “Should I invest in private markets?” to “How do I get access to the right funds?”

Economists were bullish. India was dubbed the “fastest-growing major economy.” Oil was cheap. GST and structural reforms were on the horizon. Everyone expected a consumption boom to feed a startup surge. Reports forecasted that private capital in India would double within five years. And to be fair, a lot of that came true.

But what no one predicted was how concentrated the value creation would be. A few breakout startups, a few elite GPs, a few family offices capturing most of the alpha. The rest chased it and paid the price. What was missing from the 2015 optimism was a warning about crowding: too much capital, too few credible hands.

2020: The Great Repricing and a Global Wake-Up Call

Nothing resets expectations like a global pandemic.

By March 2020, even the most sophisticated economists couldn’t predict what came next. Markets crashed, then soared. Central banks went from tightening to flooding. Suddenly, private markets were being revalued in real time without mark-to-market headlines.
The initial prediction was pessimistic. “Private markets will suffer,” said many. “Liquidity will dry up. Startups will fold. PE deals will stall.”
Instead, something extraordinary happened.
Private capital didn’t run, it reorganised. GPs doubled down on portfolio support. Family offices became opportunistic. Secondaries gained legitimacy. Tech adoption skyrocketed. And many of the most iconic exits like Zomato, Nykaa, FirstCry, seeded well before 2020, were accelerated by the crisis.

Economists underestimated one thing: capital adapts faster than they model.
While public markets rode on liquidity, private markets rode on conviction. Investors willing to stay illiquid in a year when everything else froze were rewarded not only with “double-digit IRRs” but also with access – the invaluable differentiating factor. Access to deals that no longer needed a roadshow. To founders who didn’t want tourists. To GPs who had the discipline they needed.

2025: Where We Stand Now

And now here we are in 2025.

Private markets are no longer “alternative.” They’re becoming the foundation of smart capital portfolios. Globally, more than 50% of institutional investors plan to increase their exposure to private equity and private credit over the next 3 years (source: Bain Global Private Equity Report 2024). Secondaries are booming. Infrastructure funds have re-entered the limelight. Family offices in India are building investment teams. Some are raising their own vehicles. Others are co-investing with top-tier funds across India, SEA, and the Gulf.

The cycle has matured but it’s still misunderstood.
There’s noise: late-stage startups overvalued. Funds raised on brand, not strategy. Crowded sectors. Mispriced credit. But alongside that, there’s also clarity: better governance. Real exits. Cross-border plays. Patient GPs. And allocators who understand that private markets are not designed to deliver adrenaline, they’re built to deliver disciplined performance.
If anything, 2025 shows us that most economic predictions got the macro trend right but missed the micro detail.
Yes, private markets did grow. But not in a straight line. And not for everyone.

So What Can We Learn from This 15-Year Arc?

That cycles are inevitable. That predictions rarely survive contact with lived experience. That conviction, not consensus, drives the best outcomes. And that the best investors aren’t the ones who time the market perfectly but the ones who build their access before the market realises it matters.

Private markets didn’t win because they were fashionable. They won because they were right, just slower.

And in an age where speed is worshipped, that has stood out as their greatest strength.

Source: Kotak Top of the Pyramid 2024 report

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