“But when the nation is united, filled with the spirit of Nation First, and the country is supreme, then decisions made are ironclad and results are delivered.”
— Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Operation Sindoor
The past few weeks have tested India’s spirit. The attack in Pahalgam claimed innocent lives. Families were left broken. The country, united in sorrow, watched with heavy hearts as tensions escalated and Operation Sindoor unfolded across the border. The rapid military escalation that followed brought the nation to the edge of its seat. The silence on the streets, the collective anxiety. It was a moment that stilled the nation.
The silence carried a quiet reflection. Reflection on what holds a nation steady when shaken. What allows it to absorb shock, regain its footing, and keep going.
India has long been likened to many things, including a civilisation, a democracy, and a market. But perhaps in moments like this, it is best seen as something enduring and assured: the banyan tree. Standing tall with quiet confidence.
Deep-rooted, vast, and weathered by time and history, the banyan stands. Shaped by the many trials it has faced. Its strength lies in its roots: unity, resilience, and an unwavering belief in its place in the world. And beneath its canopy, there is room for growth, for ambition, and for prosperity.
“As the world’s fastest-growing major economy, India is not just a destination for investment, it is a partner in prosperity.” — Sanjay Malhotra, RBI Governor
A Growth-Conscious RBI Anchoring Stability
At a time when global markets remain jittery and nations are scrambling for footing, India’s central bank is speaking with clarity.
In his keynote address in Washington DC on April 25, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra didn’t mince words. He called India:
“A dynamic powerhouse of opportunities, innovation, and sustainable growth in the years to come.”
In his keynote address in DC, RBI Governor Malhotra let the numbers do the talking and they told a story of strength…..
India Steps Out : Trade Diplomacy Finds Its Gear
While domestic fundamentals remain strong, India is not relying solely on internal engines to power its next leap. It’s pairing macro stability with proactive economic diplomacy by reshaping trade relationships with a new clarity of purpose.
At the heart of this shift is India’s pursuit of strategic Free Trade Agreements, not as generic globalist instruments, but as calibrated tools for deep bilateral alignment with key partners. The tone is clear: India is open, but on its own terms, and with long-term priorities in mind.
“More ‘substantial developments’ like the just-concluded India-UK trade deal, the impending agreement with the U.S. and the central bank’s dovish policies will dictate the path of India’s growth trade outlook.” — Radhika Rao, Senior Economist, DBS Bank (Singapore)
India-UK FTA : Zero-Duty Ambition, Sectoral Payoffs
Finalized in early May, the India–UK FTA is one of the most ambitious trade pacts India has signed to date. It eliminates import duties on 99% of Indian tariff lines (product categories) to the UK, across high-impact sectors like textiles, leather, auto components, and gems & jewellery. In return, India has agreed to phased tariff reductions on UK exports such as Scotch whisky and automobiles.
The UK government estimates that the India–UK FTA will generate an additional £25.5 billion in annual bilateral trade over the long term.
India–New Zealand: A Quiet Restart with Big Intentions
After a decade-long pause, India and New Zealand resumed FTA negotiations in May 2025, aiming to conclude talks by year-end.
Bilateral merchandise trade surged 48.6% YoY to $1.3 billion in FY2024–25. The FTA is expected to further elevate trade and investment potential for both countries. The deal aims to deepen market access while building resilient supply chains. New Zealand’s renewed interest coincided with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s visit to India, underlining growing alignment between two democratic Indo-Pacific partners.
India–US: High Stakes, High-Tech, and a Calculated Bet
In what may become the most geopolitically significant of all, India has proposed to cut its average tariff gap with the US from 13% to under 4% to clinch a long-anticipated trade agreement.
US is India’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade totalling $129 billion in 2024.
India’s ask? Preferential market access for key sectors such as textiles, chemicals, and jewellery, in exchange for easier rules on several high-value U.S. exports like aircraft, medical devices, and luxury cars. But more importantly, India is seeking strategic parity with America’s closest allies like the UK and Australia regarding access to technology in key areas like semiconductors, biotechnology, and AI.
The past weeks have been shaped by the emotional weight of the India–Pakistan conflict, a moment that gripped headlines and stirred markets. But not long before this, April had already tested global sentiment with waves of volatility, driven by escalating tariff battles. In a landscape where the dominant narrative shifts almost daily, memory can fade quickly. Yet some moments, and the lessons they carry, are worth holding on to. Especially when they help us understand how markets behave ~ and misbehave ~ under pressure.
Markets, Memory, and the Month That Was : Renowned Valuation Guru Aswath Damodaran’s Take on April
Professor Aswath Damodaran, in his reflection of the markets in April, offers a peek into the psychology and paradox of markets in flux. What felt like a crisis at the start of the month ended with most global indices flat, if not slightly higher. In unpacking that journey, Damodaran laid out three powerful takeaways:
Market Resilience
“Markets have repeatedly not only got the big trends right, but they have also shown far more resilience than any expert group.”
Damodaran argues that influence is now diffuse, driven by diverse, distributed voices rather than a handful of talking heads or institutional players. That diffusion makes markets more robust.
Market Power
“A key reason for the turnaround in April was the administration’s decision to walk back, reverse or delay actions that the market reacted to strongly and negatively.”
In other words: markets can still move policy. The tariff pullbacks weren’t just coincidental, they were responses to investor pushback.
Market Unpredictability
“The extent of damage that April did to investor portfolios was directly proportional to how much time they spent watching CNBC and listening to what market experts told them to do.”
Was the real risk the volatility? Or the overreaction to it?
As the conflict between India-Pakistan intensified a couple of weeks ago, concerns about a prolonged confrontation dominated every conversation – from living rooms to boardrooms. But on May 10, a ceasefire was declared. And on May 12, in a powerful if unexpected signal of resilience, Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest single-day gains in absolute terms, hitting a new year-to-date high, well above pre-tension levels.
More than a market story, it was a reflection of a belief in the India story, even through shock and sorrow.
In a real-time assessment during the conflict, Moody’s affirmed that India’s macro fundamentals remain intact, supported by strong domestic demand and minimal exposure to Pakistan (less than 0.5% of exports). Foreign investors didn’t flee. In fact, $1.5 billion flowed into Indian equities between April and early May.
India’s macro environment today, as we can thus see, is not frictionless but it is increasingly credible. It is a country that absorbed a geopolitical shock, sealed a landmark FTA, and attracted billions in equity flows.
This is what it means to earn investor trust.
If Damodaran’s blog was a reminder that volatility isn’t the villain, India’s past month has been proof that resilience is the real story.
And for those watching closely, the signals are there: India is quietly setting its own framework and defining its own pace.
This memo is, in many ways, a tribute to India’s quiet resilience and enduring strength, its ability to absorb shock, maintain credibility, and keep moving forward. From a growth-conscious RBI to bold trade diplomacy and rising investor confidence, the contours of a confident economy are taking shape.
And just like the banyan tree ~ deep rooted, shaped by all it has weathered, and expansive in its ambition ~ India stands steady. Quietly setting the pace, making room for prosperity to take root, and growing into all it can become.
Sources:
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